I’ve found a number of old fireside chats from Thiel quite interesting, more on process engineering, first principles thinking, contrarian/truth-seeking philosophy, and examining how things work. Same with other tech entrepreneurs. Some of the more recent interviews (recent Sam Altman interviews, Thiel on Joe Rogan) I find less additive personally. One way I think about this: say someone is 21, they learn valuable insights and lessons, they achieve success at 31, then they spend 31-33 talking about those lessons. Those feel relevant. Once someone is 51, there is more they have learned and hopefully achieved, but I care about what engineered that first layer of success. Meh, maybe this isn’t the best mental model. Regardless, takeaways from interview.
A list of strict rules can often filter out too much; some shortcuts are beneficial.
Investors often undervalue or are biased against products they don’t use.
The key is not to compete at all, but to do something no one else is doing and create a monopoly.
Generally, only one or two things matter. For example, Google Ads compared to all of Google’s other products. A better question: What can we do that no one else is doing?
It should be a combination of contrarian and true—unconventional ideas that no one has thought of.
Innovation sometimes involves the ability to integrate complex systems, such as vertical integration. High capital expenditure makes this difficult, e.g., SpaceX or the early iPhone.
It’s not always about inventing something new but bringing the right pieces together.
If the team “drinks the Kool-Aid,” the company may run more smoothly with less dissent; however, when people have a voice, they feel ownership over the product.
If you fail, you might think building is impossible. If things are easy, you may think building is simple. Hard is better than easy or impossible. If it’s easy, you don’t work hard. If it’s impossible, you don’t feel it’s worth the effort. Both easy and impossible lead to not working hard.
VC learnings: When things start working, people often underestimate them. When things aren’t working, people underestimate how much trouble they’re in. Participating in pro-rata during large up-rounds with smart investors is usually a good idea. The steeper the up-round, the cheaper it was. Investors may hesitate to step up significantly, but people underestimate how much conditions can change.
The future isn’t fixed; it’s a function of agency.
Automation differs between manufacturing and service sectors, related to Baumol’s cost disease theory.
All trends tend to be overrated.
It’s important to think about the correct way to approach issues and identify the main point. For example, in social networking, the focus was on real identity rather than abstract socializing.
A kernel of a really good idea includes a talented team that works well together, a good product/technology, and a sound business strategy. A great idea carries the day.
Big trends don’t necessarily translate easily into big, successful businesses.
Descriptive: Has it happened? Prescriptive: Why has it happened? Remedy: What do you do about it?
A monopoly that becomes stale ends up functioning as a tax.
Published on November 12, 2024.
Tagged: Learnings