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How to Reason

/ I want to make it more of a routine to classify who I think I am, candidly, honestly, plainly, strengths and weaknesses, and see how that changes over time. I think you find a lot of commentary talking about the past of the past is a collection of somewhat faulty memories and is that which has already happened and that the time to live is in the present and I want you to think about the future but I tried to take a bit more of a balanced approach. While the past is or has already occurred I try to think of it as a continuum of many days of today and tomorrow will eventually be the past and an important rule I have is to do everything and not have any regrets and so the past plays a role in that because at some point I’m going to involuntarily reflect on the life I’ve lived people I the people I have known and the value I hopefully provided and it’ll be nice to have good memories of happiness and satisfaction and proudness and memories of doing difficult things and suffering and pain which makes you a more resilient and interesting human being and so it also is a good reminder that you don’t actually let or have your past need influence you and that you can actually be somewhat different smaller than you were yesterday and you sort of need to remind yourself of the person you were to know how far you’ve come because if it’s so much an emphasis on the journey you sort of need to know a little bit about the path you have walked through today even if most of your emphasis is on where you are today and where you will be going tomorrow so it’s a it’s a balance. If you think about the few ways someone can reason.

The whole point of frameworks and reasoning and thinking is to have, at all times (if possible), as BALANCED of a view. Facts don’t have opinions.

Objective Framework for Reasoning

  1. First Principles Reasoning (Deductive Reasoning)

    • Core Mechanism: Start with basic, self-evident truths or axioms and derive conclusions from these. The conclusions are certain if the premises are correct.

    • Example: Mathematical proofs (e.g., starting from axioms like 1 + 1 = 2).

    • Objective Nature: This is the most rigid form of reasoning because it works purely from logical, universal truths to draw specific conclusions.

    • Key: Certainty is guaranteed by logical structure.

  2. Reasoning by Analogy (Inductive Reasoning)

    • Core Mechanism: Recognizing patterns or similarities across different instances to draw general conclusions. You infer that what works in one case likely applies to another similar one.

    • Example: The sun rises every day, so it will rise tomorrow.”

    • Objective Nature: This reasoning builds on observation but is never certain. It identifies trends or similarities but leaves room for exceptions.

    • Key: Generates probable conclusions based on patterns, but the conclusion may not always hold.

  3. Abductive Reasoning (Best Guess/Inference to the Best Explanation)

    • Core Mechanism: Choose the most plausible explanation for a set of facts, often in the absence of full information. It’s driven by intuition but based on the best available evidence.

    • Example: The car won’t start, and the battery light is on—probably a dead battery.”

    • Objective Nature: This reasoning focuses on finding the simplest or most likely explanation, though it is always open to revision if more data become available.

    • Key: Best guess from incomplete information, focusing on plausibility.

  4. Probabilistic Reasoning (Judgment With Likelihoods)

    • Core Mechanism: Evaluate multiple possible outcomes based on their likelihood. Use data, probability, or past experience to weigh risks and benefits.

    • Example: There’s a 70% chance of rain today, so I’ll bring an umbrella.”

    • Objective Nature: This reasoning combines evidence and statistical likelihoods to inform decisions, but the outcome is not guaranteed.

    • Key: Decisions are informed by weighing probabilities, often under uncertainty.


Published on November 11, 2024.

Tagged: Musings