An Abstract Paradox

/ Same as before. Let’s get started.

Assorted Thoughts (No Takeaways, Highly Suggest Reading Through):

An Abstract Paradox. In a system, say you have a very large amount of opinions. More people are informed on said system. One might think the system is thus more efficient, especially as the sentiment of the system is split close to 50/50. What if you see a system with a lot of opinions swayed 75/25? Part of you thinks, “Well, the group is often right, and the system looks efficient, with some nay-sayers,” while another part thinks, “Is it possible a large amount of people discounted the importance of the system, and don’t give it enough credit, so the 75% is actually wrong, negatively influenced by group think and adverse views toward disagreement?”

The example I give is I’ve found specifically two times where the majority of people discounted a person and their content/being, yet I found materially important value from said content, takeaways so valuable they have positively influenced my life significantly. I can’t stress how additive these individuals and their info have been to my life in very real and tangible ways. If 90% discount, perhaps the remaining 10% benefit from 100% of the output? (this is not the correct way to think about it but what the heck—it could make sense).
Finding it difficult to see what is the value in very long lists of tips and tricks. I’ve mentioned it before. If a piece of content has 10 tips or 20 best practices or 30 examples… if you took away one takeaway, whatever it is, from EVERY content piece you read, you’d be a machine. How often does this happen? More often, I feel that hap-hazardly absorbing 12 or 50 or 100+ lessons from someone’s summary doesn’t add value.

CAVEAT: Of 100 tips, you read one which resonates with you most and you remember it. How do you know if it is the best tip or not? Sometimes it is best to leave out the periphery, even if it is ok or good, for the sole reason that the main tip is great or amazing. Because no one really remembers the ok or good anyways. If a whole thread is great, or even rarer, absolutely amazing, understand the whole thing. How do you know if it’s amazing or great? Like any skill, you cultivate it. (I think)

Quick Note: I am not settled on my way of thinking about this. I may be completely wrong.
Don’t forget how fast things can really change. 2018 vs. 2023. 2006 vs. 2011. Not all 5-year intervals in history were periods of drastic change, but going forward, I would be surprised if we go 5 years without major change.
Even if for fun, take some personal bets. Some questions to start. Obvious caveat that you should pick a timeframe where you can measure/remember and there has to be data accessible to prove/disprove your bet.
1. Do I think there will be a net inflow or outflow of people from my hometown over the next 2 or 3 years?
2. Of all of my friends, who may change the most in 1 year’s time?
3. What current trend will die before people think?
4. Anything where you can guess if the outcome is the same or different as consensus. If everyone thinks that the sky will fall in 2025, do you think it will fall in 2024 or 2026? You can still agree with everyone that the sky WILL fall, but the timeline on it matters just as much. The direction of the bet (will sky fall, yes or no) AND the magnitude of the bet (when will the sky fall).
Shorter Thoughts
- Related to above… really liking the idea that life is about bets and seeing what works and trying to replicate/copy it.
- Inspiration exists for a reason.
- It is VERY difficult to disrupt your personal roots.
- Always helpful to have a framework of “risk vs. reward” (really like this and easily implementable…although the value of this is directly correlated to how well you can judge risk and corresponding reward… bad judgment = poor ability to see risk/reward).

tl;dr Don’t love the idea of a list of “50 tips” and letting the reader see what is most important. If it is your content, share what YOU think are the 1-3 most important tips. Also, things change fast and for fun, make predictions and see what happens.

Cheers,

Vishal

Published on August 21, 2023.